Melbourne Cup 2009
No. 1: Viewed (by Scenic). 58kg. Barrier 9. $5
Won last year’s Melbourne Cup with 53kg; hadn’t won again till two weeks ago in the Caulfield Cup. Big, strong horse who won’t be bothered by top weight of 58kg. Deserving favourite. Only query is that his last two wins have been thanks to a strong pacemaker and a soft run. Trained by Bart Cummings who already has 12 cups, so the horse will be fit and ready.
No. 2: Cest La Guerre (by Shinko King). 55.5kg. Barrier 7. $26
Last win was nearly 2 years ago in the NZ Derby, this horse is over-rated and will need it to rain to get within tenth place. Last race was terrible.
No. 3: Fiumicino (by Zabeel). 55.5kg. Barrier 24. $71
Former AJC Derby winner by a champion sire from a daughter of Japan Cup winner Horlicks. He’s in reasonable form. This horse is a HUGE chance if it rains. We’ll be on him.
No. 4: Master O’Reilly (by O’Reilly). 55kg. Barrier 16. $14
I’ve had my eye on this horse all spring. He’s been showing enough to say that he’ll be competitive. Only query is that he hasn’t won since the Caulfield Cup in 2007.
No. 5: Mourilyan (by Desert Prince). 54.5kg. Barrier 14. $21
South African trained horse whose form is all English and UAE. Won his last start, but is a complete unknown.
No. 6: Roman Emperor (by Montjeu). 54kg. Barrier 15. $8.50
The second from Bart’s stable, this horse has been overlooked in favour of Viewed, but in my view is probably a better bet. Very strong second in the Caulfield Cup, plus the AJC Derby six months ago, this is a horse with a big future.
No. 7: Ista Kareem (by Germano). 53.5kg. Barrier 23. $101
Well, he’s won over the distance, but isn’t going well enough.
No. 8: Crime Scene (by Royal Applause). 53kg. Barrier 17. $51
English horse with ok form there. Ran ok in his only start in Australia. Doesn’t look good enough.
No. 9: Munsef (by Zafonic). 53kg. Barrier 5. $51
English horse with a strong form line over there in weaker class racing. Hasn’t raced here, but is a reasonable chance.
No. 10: Zavite (by Zabeel). 53kg. Barrier 3. $71
Trained by Bart’s son, this horse will rush out of barrier 3 to lead the race and is basically the pacemaker for Viewed. Isn’t in the race to win.
No. 11: Alcopop (by Jeune). 52.5kg. Barrier 12. $5
Joint favourite with Viewed; and you can’t fault winning form (has won his last 4 in a row). Slight question of his class, but has a light weight and is a big chance. His sire won the Cup too, so should get the distance easy enough.
No. 12: Harris Tweed (by Montjeu). 52.5kg. Barrier 20. $101
Will be a better horse next year when he’s strengthened up a bit. Won nicely 6 months ago in the wet, might go ok if it rains.
No. 13: Kibbutz (by Golan). 52.5kg. Barrier 8. $61
Another former Derby winner who has been mixing his form lately, and probably can’t win.
No. 14: Newport (by Encosta de Lago). 52.5kg. Barrier 18. $41
Talented horse, with some discipline problems, who has been going better than some of the others. Question over the distance and whether the jockey can stay on board.
No. 15: Warringah (by Galileo). 52.5kg. Barrier 17. $26
Big wraps on this English import, but his form in England is only reasonable. Hasn’t run here, so a bit of an unknown. Should get the distance. No horse has ever won the Cup from barrier 17.
No. 16: Gallion’s Reach (by Victory Dance). 52kg. Barrier 6. $201
NZ horse who hasn’t been going well enough. Last win was 18 months ago.
No. 17: Spin Around (by Spinning World). 52kg. Barrier 4. $201
Won the Auckland Cup over the distance at the start of this year, but isn’t going very well at the moment. Better than some, but not a winning chance.
No. 18: Basaltico (by Shantou). 51.5kg. Barrier 10. $31
English horse whose trainer has won this race twice before. Form in England is ok, but ran on nicely in only start in Aus.
No. 19: Capecover (by Cape Cross). 51.5kg. Barrier 19. $81
NZ horse who tries hard, but a question over the distance and whether he is good enough.
No. 20: Daffodil (by No Excuse Needed). 51.5kg. Barrier 21. $16
Big chance. Very classy mare who won the AJC Oaks in April. Ran a nice Cup trial in the Caulfield Cup; but slight query over the distance.
No. 21: Shocking (by Street Cry). 51kg. Barrier 22. $11
In form, light weight, very good chance. Hasn’t raced over the distance, but looks like he should be able to.
No. 22: Allez Wonder (by Redoute’s Choice). 50.5kg. Barrier 13. $31
Bart’s third runner, going ok, nice light weight. Should finish in the front half of the field. Don’t ignore her.
No. 23: Changingoftheguard (by Montjeu). 50.5kg. Barrier 1. $17
Another English import whose form there is ok. Light weight gives him a chance, and should run well.
No. 24: Leica Ding (by Redding). 50.5kg. Barrier 2. $21
In form, won his last start to qualify for this race. Light weight, but a question over his class.